http://72.10.34.174/vss/2009/05/new-study-on-swine-flu/ An ARC Collaboration Thu, 20 May 2010 03:21:29 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 http://72.10.34.174/vss/2009/05/new-study-on-swine-flu/comment-page-1/#comment-39777 alakoff Wed, 13 May 2009 19:28:17 +0000 http://anthropos-lab.net/vss/?p=426#comment-39777 A key claim from the study, reported by Donald McNeil in the NY Times, relates to our earlier discussion of which prior pandemic should serve as the exemplar in developing a response strategy: "Researchers estimated that the current flu would act more like the 1957 Asian flu than like the 1918 Spanish flu." This is based on their estimate of clinical severity: a fatality rate of .3 percent to 1.5 percent. Aside from this very wide range, there would seem to be a few problems with this estimate, and with the comparison to earlier pandemics: (1) the fatality rate in 1918 is not known - though it is estimated at 2.0 - 2.5 percent; (2) the total number of cases (vs. fatalities) in Mexico - ie. the denominator in calculating the fatality rate - is not known; and (3) the fatality rate is likely to be much higher in places with poor basic health care and lack of access to antivirals. As the NYT article puts it: "Poor countries with young populations, disorganized public health measures and substandard hospital care appear much more vulnerable than wealthier ones." A key claim from the study, reported by Donald McNeil in the NY Times, relates to our earlier discussion of which prior pandemic should serve as the exemplar in developing a response strategy: “Researchers estimated that the current flu would act more like the 1957 Asian flu than like the 1918 Spanish flu.” This is based on their estimate of clinical severity: a fatality rate of .3 percent to 1.5 percent. Aside from this very wide range, there would seem to be a few problems with this estimate, and with the comparison to earlier pandemics: (1) the fatality rate in 1918 is not known – though it is estimated at 2.0 – 2.5 percent; (2) the total number of cases (vs. fatalities) in Mexico – ie. the denominator in calculating the fatality rate – is not known; and (3) the fatality rate is likely to be much higher in places with poor basic health care and lack of access to antivirals. As the NYT article puts it: “Poor countries with young populations, disorganized public health measures and substandard hospital care appear much more vulnerable than wealthier ones.”

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